EAPS

Title: The response of tropical low clouds to climate change

Abstract: Uncertainties in how tropical low clouds respond to climate change continue to dominate climate projections. They have resisted reduction for decades. Because of a convergence of what is feasible computationally on large scales (general circulation models) and small scales (large-eddy simulations), and because of the wealth of detailed observations that are now available, substantial progress on the low-cloud problem is now within reach. In this talk, I will describe recent progress in:

(a) constraining the low-cloud response to climate change observationally,
(b) understanding how the large-scale energy balance controls the low-cloud response, and (c) simulating the low-cloud response with large-eddy simulations that are driven in a way that respects the large-scale energy balance.

The results consistently indicate a positive feedback from tropical low clouds on global warming.

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