EAPS

"Backward Constraints on Climate Sensitivity"

The equilibrium response of surface temperature to an imposed imbalance in energy at the top of the atmosphere is a fundamental property of the climate system with enormous implications for how much fossil carbon can be consumed before committing the Earth to a target level of warming. Various climate models estimate a three-fold range in this climate sensitivity. One method of constraining those estimates is to use data to constrain each of the feedbacks that influence the climate sensitivity, a challenging task because there are numerous feedbacks. An alternate approach is to use observed warming and estimates of the energy storage and the radiative forcing driving the warming. In this presentation I will use the second method to explain why the IPCC reduced its lower bound on the climate sensitivity in its Fifth Assessment Report, and suggest how data can be used to constrain estimates of radiative forcing.

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