EAPS

Title: El Niño-climate change links from corals

Abstract: Coral reef ecosystems have been heavily damaged by the last year’s record-breaking El Niño event, and will come under increasing stress from rising temperatures and ocean acidity in coming decades. The magnitude and frequency of future ocean temperature extremes will determine the pace of reef degradation, with more frequent temperature extremes accelerating the demise of the most vulnerable reef systems. In this presentation, I will use monthly-resolved records of past ocean temperature extremes based on the geochemical analysis of coral records to argue that climate change has already translated into a fundamental change in El Niño properties, tilting the ocean-atmosphere system towards more frequent El Niño events in coming decades. The effects of such a shift on the world’s reef would be profound, as I present evidence from recent surveys of remote coral reef ecosystems across the 2015/2016 El Niño event. Our sustained study illustrates how interdisciplinary teams are required to address some of the most pressing questions about the future of coral reefs under continued climate change.