Sack Lunch Seminar (SLS)

SLS - Karen McKinnon (Harvard) - Foretelling Eastern US heat events from the mid-latitude Pacific
Date Time Location
December 10th, 2014 12:10pm-1:00pm 54-915
Anomalously hot summer days increase mortality and damage crops, but can typically only be predicted on weather timescales, which can be too short to allow for sufficient preparation. Predictability at longer lead times must rely on more slowly varying components of the climate system, such as the ocean. I will focus on the potential predictability of heat events in the Eastern US, a region that contains the Corn Belt and major population centers. Eastern US heat events are associated with a coherent, evolving mid-latitude Pacific SST anomaly pattern that ultimately enhances a summer mid-latitude wave train with a strong high over the Eastern US. Using a simple statistical model and leave-one-year-out cross validation, we demonstrate that the presence of the mid-latitude SST pattern increases the probability of heat events, allowing for skillful predictions at lead times greater than 40 days before the events occur.