Title: Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using Observations

Abstract: The historical objective of the NOAA Hurricane Field Program was the collection of data required to support analytical and theoretical tropical cyclone (TC) studies designed to improve the understanding of storm structure and behavior. Whereas the P-3s initially provided storm location and intensity information, the gradual increase in the amount of aircraft data transmitted to the ground led to wider support of operations. Under the NOAA Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) begun in 2005, aircraft observing efforts into tropical cyclones are geared toward (1) collecting observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; (2) developing and refining measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 93) improving the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. This data collection is part of the development of modeling systems, and involves research into data assimilation, understanding and parameterization of physical processes, and model evaluation and validation with comprehensive datasets collected by airborne platforms.

As part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), IFEX addresses the important role of aircraft observations in hurricane model physics validation and improvement. A model developmental strategy for improving the physical parameterizations uses quality-controlled and post-processed aircraft observations, with steps that include model diagnostics, physics development, physics implementation and further evaluation. Model deficiencies are first identified through model diagnostics by comparing the simulated axisymmetric multi-scale structures to observational composites. New physical parameterizations are developed in parallel based on in-situ observational data from specially designed hurricane field programs. The new physics package is then implemented in the model, which is followed by further evaluation. The developmental framework presented here is found to be successful in improving the surface layer and boundary layer parameterization schemes in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. Observations for improving other physics packages are also discussed.



Speaker's website: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Marks/marks_bio.html