Title: Impacts of meteorology-driven seed dispersal to plant migration, and implications for future vegetation change due to climate change


Abstract: Do you remember the astonishment when you first saw the
helicopter seed of maple trees flying in your backyard? Unfortunately,
models cannot simulate the astonishment at the memorable moment of
your childhood; but they can still capture the mechanism of
wind-driven seed dispersal, which is currently not included in Dynamic
Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). We developed an improved tool to
simulate time-varying wind-driven seed dispersion as a dynamic
constraint to the migration process of natural vegetation. Compared to
the satellite-derived treecovers, the result using our SEED model
shows significantly improved representation of vegetation in regions
such as boreal forests in Western Siberia and temperate forests in
Eastern Europe. The prevailing wind pattern, along with the existing
vegetation structure in nearby gridcells, alters the competition
dynamics of the trees in these regions by filtering unrealistic
saplings out and adjusting their establishment rates. Results in
projecting future vegetation structures under two climate mitigation
scenarios (No-policy vs. 450ppm CO2 stabilization) at the end of 21st
century, and their impacts to ecosystems are also addressed.