| Date | Time | Location |
|---|---|---|
| February 27th, 2002 | 12:00am-12:00am |
Look at some pictures here
LECTURE ONE: WEDNESDAY, FEB. 27
Ocean and Climate Change
Brief introduction to ocean meridional heat transport. Classical dynamics concepts. Multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation.
Paleoclimate Evidence of Abrupt Change
What do we mean by "abrupt"? Discussions of paleoclimatic records of abrupt change. Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles in Greenland ice cores. The record of greenhouse gases during deglaciation, and other abrupt events in the past. A close look at the last deglaciation (18,000 - 9000 years before present) from an interhemispheric perspective. The spatial structure of abrupt change during deglaciation.
LECTURE TWO: MONDAY, MARCH 4
Climate Models of Reduced Complexity (Part I)
Discussion of the climate model hierarchy. A "modeling codex". What are sensible questions to address with simplified models? What are the limits of such models? Introduction to the Bern climate model of reduced complexity. Which and how well can the model reproduce aspects of the climate system? The role of "tuning". Hysteresis of the thermohaline circulation: a specific model prediction, which is testable.
Radiocarbon as a Tracer of Global Ocean Ventilation
Inventory of radiocarbon, and the distribution of radiocarbon in the ocean. Changes of radiocarbon over the last 40,000 years. The radiocarbon "clock". Changes in the century time scale. Changes of radiocarbon during the Younger Dryas cooling event. What determines the maximum amplitude of atmospheric radiocarbon changes during abrupt climate change? Surface reservoir ages are not constant.
LECTURE 3: WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
Climate Models of Reduced Complexity (Part II)
Overview of simplified biogeochemical models. Basic model structure, and comparison of key variables with observations. The trace of biogeochemical variables during abrupt climate change.
The bipolar seesaw - a useful, but too simple, concept
Discussion of the "bipolar seesaw" as a concept for abrupt climate change. Examples from the paleoclimatic record and modeling. Why are not all Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles the same? A proposal for the dynamics during
deglaciation.
LECTURE 4: MONDAY, MARCH 11
Response of the thermohaline circulation to global warming.
What do we know from models? What are the major uncertainties? Not only warming, but also rate of warming matters. What determines the stability on the thermohaline circulation? Possible influence of natural variability and its changes on the thermohaline circulation (ENSO).
"Runaway Greenhouse Effect", and Predictability
Discussion of the possibility of a "runaway greenhouse effect" due to the shut-down of the thermohaline circulation: modeling and analogs from the past. Predictability of the thermohaline circulation close to a threshold.