WHOI PO

NOTE DATE CHANGE - this seminar will be held at 2pm on Thursday January 15th

Title: Present and future ocean variability in Baffin Bay: insights from observations and models


Baffin Bay, located between West Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is a region of critical importance in the Arctic Ocean. In southern Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait is one of three ocean gateways connecting the Arctic Ocean to the north Atlantic Ocean, and in northern Baffin Bay, the North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the Arctic Ocean’s most productive ecosystems. The first half of my talk will describe projected changes to the NOW under policy-relevant global warming thresholds using the CESM1 climate model. Under increasing global mean temperatures, we project that in the NOW, fall sea ice production will decrease, spring sea ice retreat will accelerate, and that stratification will increase due to both ocean warming and freshening, with adverse ecosystem impacts. In the second half of my talk, I will present an updated and extended observational record of Davis Strait watermass properties and transports, which now covers the 2004-2024 period. These novel time series reveal long-term freshening of Arctic Waters entering the Labrador Sea, as well as evidence of Beaufort Gyre derived freshwater on the West Greenland Shelf. Oceanic variability at Davis Strait has implications for ecosystem productivity in the NOW region and watermass transformations in subpolar north Atlantic Ocean.