Title: The Impact of Increasing CO2 on Summer Temperature Variability

Abstract: In this talk, I will summarize the processes that govern the surface energy and moisture fluxes in the summertime over continental regions, and identify the feedbacks that determine whether land-atmosphere interactions amplify or damp summertime temperature variability. The climatological soil moisture distinguishes remarkably well regions that experience amplified temperature variance due to land-atmosphere interactions from regions that experience damped temperature variance — in both of the climate models examined and in the “observations” (i.e., the ERA reanalysis product). With this framework in hand, I will re-examine the results from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models concerning the impact increasing atmospheric CO2 on summertime temperature variability; results suggest that the projected increase in temperature variance may be underestimated by these models.

Speaker's website: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/