Title: Community Atmosphere and Earth System Modeling beyond CMIP5: Seamless Prediction from Climate to Weather

Abstract: The past and future evolution of a widely used earth system model, the Community Earth System Model, is discussed. The current status of the model as part of the latest coupled model inter comparison project (CMIP5) will be highlighted. CESM simulation performance is critical regimes is analyzed: such as Arctic clouds and climate change, and on simulations of tropical cyclones. Results of historical and future simulations will be presented. CESM also has a significantly different climate sensitivity to radiative forcing changes from its predecessors. The change in sensitivity is due to changes to the radiation code (forcing) and changes to the cloud parameterizations (feedbacks). These are analyzed in detail, and the causes traced to parameterizations of clouds. Future modeling directions are discussed beyond the CMIP5 version of CESM, and a conceptual framework to consistently go from climate to weather scales will be outlined, with some progress and plans presented.

Speaker's Website: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cms/andrew/

Host: Daniel Rothenberg